Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Bandpass Filter This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The related article is copyrighted material from
Stocks & Commodities Mar 2010
You can use in the xPrice any series: Open, High, Low, Close, HL2, HLC3, OHLC4 and ect...
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
חפש סקריפטים עבור "the strat"
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Average True Range Trailing Stops This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Secon strategy
Average True Range Trailing Stops Strategy, by Sylvain Vervoort
The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities Jun 2009
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Average True Range Trailing Stops This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Secon strategy
Average True Range Trailing Stops Strategy, by Sylvain Vervoort
The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities Jun 2009
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal and ADXR This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Secon strategy
The Average Directional Movement Index Rating (ADXR) measures the strength
of the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX). It's calculated by taking
the average of the current ADX and the ADX from one time period before
(time periods can vary, but the most typical period used is 14 days).
Like the ADX, the ADXR ranges from values of 0 to 100 and reflects strengthening
and weakening trends. However, because it represents an average of ADX, values
don't fluctuate as dramatically and some analysts believe the indicator helps
better display trends in volatile markets.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal and ADXR This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Secon strategy
The Average Directional Movement Index Rating (ADXR) measures the strength
of the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX). It's calculated by taking
the average of the current ADX and the ADX from one time period before
(time periods can vary, but the most typical period used is 14 days).
Like the ADX, the ADXR ranges from values of 0 to 100 and reflects strengthening
and weakening trends. However, because it represents an average of ADX, values
don't fluctuate as dramatically and some analysts believe the indicator helps
better display trends in volatile markets.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The Accelerator Oscillator has been developed by Bill Williams
as the development of the Awesome Oscillator. It represents the
difference between the Awesome Oscillator and the 5-period moving
average, and as such it shows the speed of change of the Awesome
Oscillator, which can be useful to find trend reversals before the
Awesome Oscillator does.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategies 123 Reversal and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The Accelerator Oscillator has been developed by Bill Williams
as the development of the Awesome Oscillator. It represents the
difference between the Awesome Oscillator and the 5-period moving
average, and as such it shows the speed of change of the Awesome
Oscillator, which can be useful to find trend reversals before the
Awesome Oscillator does.
WARNING:
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal and Absolute Price Oscillator (APO) This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Secon strategy
The Absolute Price Oscillator displays the difference between two exponential
moving averages of a security's price and is expressed as an absolute value.
How this indicator works
APO crossing above zero is considered bullish, while crossing below zero is bearish.
A positive indicator value indicates an upward movement, while negative readings
signal a downward trend.
Divergences form when a new high or low in price is not confirmed by the Absolute Price
Oscillator (APO). A bullish divergence forms when price make a lower low, but the APO
forms a higher low. This indicates less downward momentum that could foreshadow a bullish
reversal. A bearish divergence forms when price makes a higher high, but the APO forms a
lower high. This shows less upward momentum that could foreshadow a bearish reversal.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategies 123 Reversal and Absolute Price Oscillator This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Secon strategy
The Absolute Price Oscillator displays the difference between two exponential
moving averages of a security's price and is expressed as an absolute value.
How this indicator works
APO crossing above zero is considered bullish, while crossing below zero is bearish.
A positive indicator value indicates an upward movement, while negative readings
signal a downward trend.
Divergences form when a new high or low in price is not confirmed by the Absolute Price
Oscillator (APO). A bullish divergence forms when price make a lower low, but the APO
forms a higher low. This indicates less downward momentum that could foreshadow a bullish
reversal. A bearish divergence forms when price makes a higher high, but the APO forms a
lower high. This shows less upward momentum that could foreshadow a bearish reversal.
WARNING:
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategies 123 Reversal and 3-Bar-Reversal-Pattern This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Secon strategy
This startegy based on 3-day pattern reversal described in "Are Three-Bar
Patterns Reliable For Stocks" article by Thomas Bulkowski, presented in
January,2000 issue of Stocks&Commodities magazine.
That pattern conforms to the following rules:
- It uses daily prices, not intraday or weekly prices;
- The middle day of the three-day pattern has the lowest low of the three days, with no ties allowed;
- The last day must have a close above the prior day's high, with no ties allowed;
- Each day must have a nonzero trading range.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategies 123 Reversal and 3-Bar-Reversal-Pattern This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Secon strategy
This startegy based on 3-day pattern reversal described in "Are Three-Bar
Patterns Reliable For Stocks" article by Thomas Bulkowski, presented in
January,2000 issue of Stocks&Commodities magazine.
That pattern conforms to the following rules:
- It uses daily prices, not intraday or weekly prices;
- The middle day of the three-day pattern has the lowest low of the three days, with no ties allowed;
- The last day must have a close above the prior day's high, with no ties allowed;
- Each day must have a nonzero trading range.
WARNING:
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal and 2/20 EMA This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Secon strategy
This indicator plots 2/20 exponential moving average. For the Mov
Avg X 2/20 Indicator, the EMA bar will be painted when the Alert criteria is met.
Please, use it only for learning or paper trading. Do not for real trading.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategies 123 Reversal and 2/20 EMA This is combo strategies for get
a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies
is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Secon strategy
This indicator plots 2/20 exponential moving average. For the Mov
Avg X 2/20 Indicator, the EMA bar will be painted when the Alert criteria is met.
Please, use it only for learning or paper trading. Do not for real trading.
XPloRR MA-Buy ATR-Trailing-Stop Long Term Strategy Beating B&HXPloRR MA-Buy ATR-MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy
Long term MA Trailing Stop strategy to beat Buy&Hold strategy
None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy.
Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades. 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade.
My buy strategy is triggered by the EMA(blue) crossing over the SMA curve(orange).
My sell strategy is triggered by another EMA(lime) of the close value crossing the trailing stop(green) value.
The trailing stop value(green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value.
ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between high and low values.
Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is find the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA, SMA and Trailing Stop.
Then keep using these parameter for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock.
Do the same for other stocks.
Here are the parameters:
Exponential MA: buy trigger when crossing over the SMA value (use values between 11-50)
Simple MA: buy trigger when EMA crosses over the SMA value (use values between 20 and 200)
Stop EMA: sell trigger when Stop EMA of close value crosses under the trailing stop value (use values between 8 and 16)
Trailing Stop #ATR: defines the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value
Example parameters for different stocks (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now):
BAR(Barco): EMA=11, SMA=82, StopEMA=12, Stop#ATR=9
Buy&HoldProfit: 45.82%, NetProfit: 294.7%, #Trades:8, %Profit:62.5%, ProfitFactor: 12.539
AAPL(Apple): EMA=12, SMA=45, StopEMA=12, Stop#ATR=6
Buy&HoldProfit: 2925.86%, NetProfit: 4035.92%, #Trades:10, %Profit:60%, ProfitFactor: 6.36
BEKB(Bekaert): EMA=12, SMA=42, StopEMA=12, Stop#ATR=7
Buy&HoldProfit: 81.11%, NetProfit: 521.37%, #Trades:10, %Profit:60%, ProfitFactor: 2.617
SOLB(Solvay): EMA=12, SMA=63, StopEMA=11, Stop#ATR=8
Buy&HoldProfit: 43.61%, NetProfit: 151.4%, #Trades:8, %Profit:75%, ProfitFactor: 3.794
PHIA(Philips): EMA=11, SMA=80, StopEMA=8, Stop#ATR=10
Buy&HoldProfit: 56.79%, NetProfit: 198.46%, #Trades:6, %Profit:83.33%, ProfitFactor: 23.07
I am very curious to see the parameters for your stocks and please make suggestions to improve this strategy.
Volume Momentum Strategy [MA/VWAP Cross]Deconstructing the Volume Momentum Strategy: An Analysis of MA-VWAP Cross Mechanics
Introduction
The "Volume Momentum Strategy " is a technical trading algorithm programmed in Pine Script v6 for the TradingView platform. At its core, the strategy is a trend-following system that utilizes the interaction between a specific Moving Average (MA) and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to generate trade signals. While the primary execution logic relies on price crossovers, the strategy incorporates a sophisticated secondary layer of analysis using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Stochastic Oscillator. Uniquely, these secondary indicators are applied to volume data rather than price, serving as a gauge for market participation and momentum intensity.
The Core Engine: MA and VWAP Crossover
The primary engine driving the strategy's buy and sell decisions is the crossover relationship between a user-defined Moving Average and the VWAP.
1. The Anchor (VWAP): The strategy calculates the Volume Weighted Average Price based on the HLC3 (High, Low, Close divided by 3) source. VWAP serves as the dynamic benchmark for "fair value" throughout the trading session.
2. The Trigger (Moving Average): The script allows for flexibility in defining the "fast" line, offering options such as Simple (SMA), Exponential (EMA), or Hull Moving Averages.
3. The Signal:
o A Long (Buy) signal is generated when the chosen MA crosses over the VWAP. This suggests that short-term price momentum is exceeding the average volume-weighted price of the session, indicating bullish sentiment.
o A Short (Sell) signal is generated when the MA crosses under the VWAP, indicating bearish pressure where price is being pushed below the session's volume-weighted average.
The Role of CCI and Stochastic: Analyzing Volume Momentum
The prompt specifically inquires about how the CCI and Stochastic indicators fit into this process. In standard technical analysis, these oscillators are used to identify overbought or oversold price conditions. However, this strategy repurposes them to analyze Volume Momentum.
1. The Calculation
Instead of using close prices as the input source, the script passes volume data into both indicator functions:
• Volume CCI: Calculated as ta.cci(volume, cciLength). This measures the deviation of current volume from its statistical average.
• Volume Stochastic: Calculated as ta.stoch(volume, volume, volume, stochLength). This gauges the current volume relative to its recent range.
2. The "Volume Spike" Condition
The strategy combines these two indicators to define a specific market condition labeled isVolumeSpike. A volume spike is confirmed only when both conditions are met simultaneously:
• The Volume CCI must be greater than a defined threshold (default: 100).
• The Volume Stochastic must be greater than a defined threshold (default: 80).
3. Integration into the Process
It is critical to note how this script currently applies this "Volume Spike" logic:
• Visual Confirmation: In the current version of the code, the isVolumeSpike boolean is used strictly for visual feedback. When a spike is detected, the script paints the specific price bar yellow and plots a small triangle marker below the bar.
• Strategic Implication: While the code calculates these metrics, the variables long_condition and short_condition currently rely solely on the MA/VWAP crossover. The developer has left the volume logic as a visual overlay, noting in the comments that it serves as a "visual/alert" or a potential filter.
• Potential Alpha: Conceptually, this setup implies that a trader should look for the MA/VWAP crossover to occur coincidentally with—or shortly after—a "Volume Spike" (yellow bar). This would confirm that the price move is backed by significant institutional participation (volume) rather than just retail noise.
Risk Management and Time Constraints
The strategy wraps these technical signals in a robust risk management framework. It includes hard-coded time windows (start/stop trading times) and a "Close All" function to prevent holding positions overnight. Furthermore, it employs both percentage-based and dollar-based Stop Loss and Take Profit mechanisms, ensuring that every entry—whether generated by a high-momentum crossover or a standard trend move—has a predefined exit plan.
Conclusion
The "Volume Momentum Strategy" is a hybrid system. It executes trades based on the reliable trend signal of MA crossing VWAP but informs the trader with advanced volume analytics. By processing volume through the CCI and Stochastic calculations, it provides a "heads-up" display regarding the intensity of market participation, allowing the trader to distinguish between low-volume drifts and high-volume breakout moves.
Grok/Claude Turtle Soup Alert SystemReplaces previous Turtle Soup Strategy/Indicator as Tradingview will not let me update it.
# 🥣 Turtle Soup Strategy (Enhanced)
## A Mean-Reversion Strategy Based on Failed Breakouts
---
## Historical Origins
### The Original Turtle Traders (1983-1988)
The Turtle Trading system is one of the most famous experiments in trading history. In 1983, legendary commodities trader **Richard Dennis** made a bet with his partner **William Eckhardt** about whether great traders were born or made. Dennis believed trading could be taught; Eckhardt believed it was innate.
To settle the debate, Dennis recruited 23 ordinary people through newspaper ads—including a professional blackjack player, a fantasy game designer, and an accountant—and taught them his trading system in just two weeks. He called them "Turtles" after turtle farms he had visited in Singapore, saying *"We are going to grow traders just like they grow turtles in Singapore."*
The results were extraordinary. Over the next five years, the Turtles reportedly earned over **$175 million in profits**. The experiment proved Dennis right: trading could indeed be taught.
#### The Original Turtle Rules:
- **Entry:** Buy when price breaks above the 20-day high (System 1) or 55-day high (System 2)
- **Exit:** Sell when price breaks below the 10-day low (System 1) or 20-day low (System 2)
- **Stop Loss:** 2x ATR (Average True Range) from entry
- **Position Sizing:** Based on volatility (ATR)
- **Philosophy:** Pure trend-following—catch big moves by riding breakouts
The Turtle system was a **trend-following** strategy that assumed breakouts would lead to sustained trends. It worked brilliantly in trending markets but suffered during choppy, range-bound conditions.
---
### The Turtle Soup Strategy (1990s)
In the 1990s, renowned trader **Linda Bradford Raschke** (along with Larry Connors) observed something interesting: many of the breakouts that the Turtle system traded actually *failed*. Price would spike above the 20-day high, trigger Turtle buy orders, then immediately reverse—trapping the breakout traders.
Raschke realized these failed breakouts were predictable and tradeable. She developed the **Turtle Soup** strategy, which does the *exact opposite* of the original Turtle system:
> *"Instead of buying the breakout, we wait for it to fail—then fade it."*
The name "Turtle Soup" is a clever play on words: the strategy essentially "eats" the Turtles by trading against them when their breakouts fail.
#### Original Turtle Soup Rules:
- **Setup:** Price makes a new 20-day high (or low)
- **Qualifier:** The previous 20-day high must be at least 3-4 days old (not a fresh breakout)
- **Entry Trigger:** Price reverses back inside the channel (failed breakout)
- **Entry:** Go SHORT (against the failed breakout above), or LONG (against the failed breakdown below)
- **Philosophy:** Mean-reversion—fade false breakouts and profit from trapped traders
#### Turtle Soup Plus One Variant:
Raschke also developed a more conservative variant called "Turtle Soup Plus One" which waits for the *next bar* after the breakout to confirm the failure before entering. This reduces false signals but may miss some opportunities.
---
## Our Enhanced Turtle Soup Strategy
We have taken the classic Turtle Soup concept and enhanced it with modern technical indicators and filters to improve signal quality and adapt to today's markets.
### Core Logic Preserved
The fundamental strategy remains true to Raschke's original concept:
| Turtle (Original) | Turtle Soup (Our Strategy) |
|-------------------|---------------------------|
| BUY breakout above 20-day high | SHORT when that breakout FAILS |
| SELL breakout below 20-day low | LONG when that breakdown FAILS |
| Trend-following | Mean-reversion |
| "The trend is your friend" | "Failed breakouts trap traders" |
---
### Enhancements & Improvements
#### 1. RSI Exhaustion Filter
**Addition:** RSI must confirm exhaustion before entry
- **For SHORT entries:** RSI > 60 (buyers exhausted)
- **For LONG entries:** RSI < 40 (sellers exhausted)
**Why:** The original Turtle Soup had no momentum filter. Adding RSI ensures we only fade breakouts when the market is showing signs of exhaustion, significantly reducing false signals. This enhancement was inspired by later traders who found RSI extremes (originally 90/10, softened to 60/40) dramatically improved win rates.
#### 2. ADX Trending Filter
**Addition:** ADX must be > 20 for trades to execute
**Why:** While the original Turtle Soup was designed for ranging markets, we found that requiring *some* trend strength (ADX > 20) actually improves results. This ensures we're trading in markets with enough directional movement to create meaningful failed breakouts, rather than random noise in dead markets.
#### 3. Heikin Ashi Smoothing
**Addition:** Optional Heikin Ashi calculations for breakout detection
**Why:** Heikin Ashi candles smooth out price noise and make trend reversals more visible. When enabled, the strategy uses HA values to detect breakouts and failures, reducing whipsaws from erratic price spikes.
#### 4. Dynamic Donchian Channels with Regime Detection
**Addition:** Color-coded channels based on market regime
- 🟢 **Green:** Bullish regime (uptrend + DI+ > DI- + OBV bullish)
- 🔴 **Red:** Bearish regime (downtrend + DI- > DI+ + OBV bearish)
- 🟡 **Yellow:** Neutral regime
**Why:** Visual regime detection helps traders understand the broader market context. The original Turtle Soup had no regime awareness—our enhancement lets traders see at a glance whether conditions favor the strategy.
#### 5. Volume Spike Detection (Optional)
**Addition:** Optional filter requiring volume surge on the breakout bar
**Why:** Failed breakouts are more significant when they occur on high volume. A volume spike on the breakout bar (default 1.2x average) indicates more traders got trapped, creating stronger reversal potential.
#### 6. ATR-Based Stops and Targets
**Addition:** Configurable ATR-based stop losses and profit targets
- **Stop Loss:** 1.5x ATR (default)
- **Profit Target:** 2.0x ATR (default)
**Why:** The original Turtle Soup used fixed stop placement. ATR-based stops adapt to current volatility, providing tighter stops in calm markets and wider stops in volatile conditions.
#### 7. Signal Cooldown
**Addition:** Minimum bars between trades (default 5)
**Why:** Prevents overtrading during choppy conditions where multiple failed breakouts might occur in quick succession.
#### 8. Real-Time Info Panel
**Addition:** Comprehensive dashboard showing:
- Current regime (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral)
- RSI value and zone
- ADX value and trending status
- Breakout status
- Bars since last high/low
- Current setup status
- Position status
**Why:** Gives traders instant visibility into all strategy conditions without needing to check multiple indicators.
---
## Entry Rules Summary
### SHORT Entry (Fading Failed Breakout Above)
1. ✅ Price breaks ABOVE the 20-period Donchian high
2. ✅ Previous 20-period high was at least 1 bar ago
3. ✅ Price closes back BELOW the Donchian high (failed breakout)
4. ✅ RSI > 60 (exhausted buyers)
5. ✅ ADX > 20 (trending market)
6. ✅ Cooldown period met
→ **Enter SHORT**, betting the breakout will fail
### LONG Entry (Fading Failed Breakdown Below)
1. ✅ Price breaks BELOW the 20-period Donchian low
2. ✅ Previous 20-period low was at least 1 bar ago
3. ✅ Price closes back ABOVE the Donchian low (failed breakdown)
4. ✅ RSI < 40 (exhausted sellers)
5. ✅ ADX > 20 (trending market)
6. ✅ Cooldown period met
→ **Enter LONG**, betting the breakdown will fail
---
## Exit Rules
1. **ATR Stop Loss:** Position closed if price moves 1.5x ATR against entry
2. **ATR Profit Target:** Position closed if price moves 2.0x ATR in favor
3. **Channel Exit:** Position closed if price breaks the exit channel in the opposite direction
4. **Mid-Channel Exit:** Position closed if price returns to channel midpoint
---
## Best Market Conditions
The Turtle Soup strategy performs best when:
- ✅ Markets are prone to false breakouts
- ✅ Volatility is moderate (not too low, not extreme)
- ✅ Price is oscillating within a broader range
- ✅ There are clear support/resistance levels
The strategy may struggle when:
- ❌ Strong trends persist (breakouts follow through)
- ❌ Volatility is extremely low (no meaningful breakouts)
- ❌ Markets are in news-driven directional moves
---
## Default Settings
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------------|
| Lookback Period | 20 | Donchian channel period |
| Min Bars Since Extreme | 1 | Bars since last high/low |
| RSI Length | 14 | RSI calculation period |
| RSI Short Level | 60 | RSI must be above this for shorts |
| RSI Long Level | 40 | RSI must be below this for longs |
| ADX Length | 14 | ADX calculation period |
| ADX Threshold | 20 | Minimum ADX for trades |
| ATR Period | 20 | ATR calculation period |
| ATR Stop Multiplier | 1.5 | Stop loss distance in ATR |
| ATR Target Multiplier | 2.0 | Profit target distance in ATR |
| Cooldown Period | 5 | Minimum bars between trades |
| Volume Multiplier | 1.2 | Volume spike threshold |
---
## Philosophy
> *"The Turtle system made millions by following breakouts. The Turtle Soup strategy makes money when those breakouts fail. In trading, there's always someone on the other side of the trade—this strategy profits by being the smart money that fades the trapped breakout traders."*
The beauty of the Turtle Soup strategy is its elegant simplicity: it exploits a known, repeatable pattern (failed breakouts) while using modern filters (RSI, ADX) to improve timing and reduce false signals.
---
## Credits
- **Original Turtle System:** Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt (1983)
- **Turtle Soup Strategy:** Linda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors (1990s)
- **RSI Enhancement:** Various traders who discovered RSI extremes improve reversal detection
- **This Implementation:** Enhanced with Heikin Ashi smoothing, regime detection, ADX filtering, and comprehensive visualization
---
*"We're not following the turtles—we're making soup out of them."* 🥣
Grok/Claude Turtle Soup Strategy # 🥣 Turtle Soup Strategy (Enhanced)
## A Mean-Reversion Strategy Based on Failed Breakouts
---
## Historical Origins
### The Original Turtle Traders (1983-1988)
The Turtle Trading system is one of the most famous experiments in trading history. In 1983, legendary commodities trader **Richard Dennis** made a bet with his partner **William Eckhardt** about whether great traders were born or made. Dennis believed trading could be taught; Eckhardt believed it was innate.
To settle the debate, Dennis recruited 23 ordinary people through newspaper ads—including a professional blackjack player, a fantasy game designer, and an accountant—and taught them his trading system in just two weeks. He called them "Turtles" after turtle farms he had visited in Singapore, saying *"We are going to grow traders just like they grow turtles in Singapore."*
The results were extraordinary. Over the next five years, the Turtles reportedly earned over **$175 million in profits**. The experiment proved Dennis right: trading could indeed be taught.
#### The Original Turtle Rules:
- **Entry:** Buy when price breaks above the 20-day high (System 1) or 55-day high (System 2)
- **Exit:** Sell when price breaks below the 10-day low (System 1) or 20-day low (System 2)
- **Stop Loss:** 2x ATR (Average True Range) from entry
- **Position Sizing:** Based on volatility (ATR)
- **Philosophy:** Pure trend-following—catch big moves by riding breakouts
The Turtle system was a **trend-following** strategy that assumed breakouts would lead to sustained trends. It worked brilliantly in trending markets but suffered during choppy, range-bound conditions.
---
### The Turtle Soup Strategy (1990s)
In the 1990s, renowned trader **Linda Bradford Raschke** (along with Larry Connors) observed something interesting: many of the breakouts that the Turtle system traded actually *failed*. Price would spike above the 20-day high, trigger Turtle buy orders, then immediately reverse—trapping the breakout traders.
Raschke realized these failed breakouts were predictable and tradeable. She developed the **Turtle Soup** strategy, which does the *exact opposite* of the original Turtle system:
> *"Instead of buying the breakout, we wait for it to fail—then fade it."*
The name "Turtle Soup" is a clever play on words: the strategy essentially "eats" the Turtles by trading against them when their breakouts fail.
#### Original Turtle Soup Rules:
- **Setup:** Price makes a new 20-day high (or low)
- **Qualifier:** The previous 20-day high must be at least 3-4 days old (not a fresh breakout)
- **Entry Trigger:** Price reverses back inside the channel (failed breakout)
- **Entry:** Go SHORT (against the failed breakout above), or LONG (against the failed breakdown below)
- **Philosophy:** Mean-reversion—fade false breakouts and profit from trapped traders
#### Turtle Soup Plus One Variant:
Raschke also developed a more conservative variant called "Turtle Soup Plus One" which waits for the *next bar* after the breakout to confirm the failure before entering. This reduces false signals but may miss some opportunities.
---
## Our Enhanced Turtle Soup Strategy
We have taken the classic Turtle Soup concept and enhanced it with modern technical indicators and filters to improve signal quality and adapt to today's markets.
### Core Logic Preserved
The fundamental strategy remains true to Raschke's original concept:
| Turtle (Original) | Turtle Soup (Our Strategy) |
|-------------------|---------------------------|
| BUY breakout above 20-day high | SHORT when that breakout FAILS |
| SELL breakout below 20-day low | LONG when that breakdown FAILS |
| Trend-following | Mean-reversion |
| "The trend is your friend" | "Failed breakouts trap traders" |
---
### Enhancements & Improvements
#### 1. RSI Exhaustion Filter
**Addition:** RSI must confirm exhaustion before entry
- **For SHORT entries:** RSI > 60 (buyers exhausted)
- **For LONG entries:** RSI < 40 (sellers exhausted)
**Why:** The original Turtle Soup had no momentum filter. Adding RSI ensures we only fade breakouts when the market is showing signs of exhaustion, significantly reducing false signals. This enhancement was inspired by later traders who found RSI extremes (originally 90/10, softened to 60/40) dramatically improved win rates.
#### 2. ADX Trending Filter
**Addition:** ADX must be > 20 for trades to execute
**Why:** While the original Turtle Soup was designed for ranging markets, we found that requiring *some* trend strength (ADX > 20) actually improves results. This ensures we're trading in markets with enough directional movement to create meaningful failed breakouts, rather than random noise in dead markets.
#### 3. Heikin Ashi Smoothing
**Addition:** Optional Heikin Ashi calculations for breakout detection
**Why:** Heikin Ashi candles smooth out price noise and make trend reversals more visible. When enabled, the strategy uses HA values to detect breakouts and failures, reducing whipsaws from erratic price spikes.
#### 4. Dynamic Donchian Channels with Regime Detection
**Addition:** Color-coded channels based on market regime
- 🟢 **Green:** Bullish regime (uptrend + DI+ > DI- + OBV bullish)
- 🔴 **Red:** Bearish regime (downtrend + DI- > DI+ + OBV bearish)
- 🟡 **Yellow:** Neutral regime
**Why:** Visual regime detection helps traders understand the broader market context. The original Turtle Soup had no regime awareness—our enhancement lets traders see at a glance whether conditions favor the strategy.
#### 5. Volume Spike Detection (Optional)
**Addition:** Optional filter requiring volume surge on the breakout bar
**Why:** Failed breakouts are more significant when they occur on high volume. A volume spike on the breakout bar (default 1.2x average) indicates more traders got trapped, creating stronger reversal potential.
#### 6. ATR-Based Stops and Targets
**Addition:** Configurable ATR-based stop losses and profit targets
- **Stop Loss:** 1.5x ATR (default)
- **Profit Target:** 2.0x ATR (default)
**Why:** The original Turtle Soup used fixed stop placement. ATR-based stops adapt to current volatility, providing tighter stops in calm markets and wider stops in volatile conditions.
#### 7. Signal Cooldown
**Addition:** Minimum bars between trades (default 5)
**Why:** Prevents overtrading during choppy conditions where multiple failed breakouts might occur in quick succession.
#### 8. Real-Time Info Panel
**Addition:** Comprehensive dashboard showing:
- Current regime (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral)
- RSI value and zone
- ADX value and trending status
- Breakout status
- Bars since last high/low
- Current setup status
- Position status
**Why:** Gives traders instant visibility into all strategy conditions without needing to check multiple indicators.
---
## Entry Rules Summary
### SHORT Entry (Fading Failed Breakout Above)
1. ✅ Price breaks ABOVE the 20-period Donchian high
2. ✅ Previous 20-period high was at least 1 bar ago
3. ✅ Price closes back BELOW the Donchian high (failed breakout)
4. ✅ RSI > 60 (exhausted buyers)
5. ✅ ADX > 20 (trending market)
6. ✅ Cooldown period met
→ **Enter SHORT**, betting the breakout will fail
### LONG Entry (Fading Failed Breakdown Below)
1. ✅ Price breaks BELOW the 20-period Donchian low
2. ✅ Previous 20-period low was at least 1 bar ago
3. ✅ Price closes back ABOVE the Donchian low (failed breakdown)
4. ✅ RSI < 40 (exhausted sellers)
5. ✅ ADX > 20 (trending market)
6. ✅ Cooldown period met
→ **Enter LONG**, betting the breakdown will fail
---
## Exit Rules
1. **ATR Stop Loss:** Position closed if price moves 1.5x ATR against entry
2. **ATR Profit Target:** Position closed if price moves 2.0x ATR in favor
3. **Channel Exit:** Position closed if price breaks the exit channel in the opposite direction
4. **Mid-Channel Exit:** Position closed if price returns to channel midpoint
---
## Best Market Conditions
The Turtle Soup strategy performs best when:
- ✅ Markets are prone to false breakouts
- ✅ Volatility is moderate (not too low, not extreme)
- ✅ Price is oscillating within a broader range
- ✅ There are clear support/resistance levels
The strategy may struggle when:
- ❌ Strong trends persist (breakouts follow through)
- ❌ Volatility is extremely low (no meaningful breakouts)
- ❌ Markets are in news-driven directional moves
---
## Default Settings
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------------|
| Lookback Period | 20 | Donchian channel period |
| Min Bars Since Extreme | 1 | Bars since last high/low |
| RSI Length | 14 | RSI calculation period |
| RSI Short Level | 60 | RSI must be above this for shorts |
| RSI Long Level | 40 | RSI must be below this for longs |
| ADX Length | 14 | ADX calculation period |
| ADX Threshold | 20 | Minimum ADX for trades |
| ATR Period | 20 | ATR calculation period |
| ATR Stop Multiplier | 1.5 | Stop loss distance in ATR |
| ATR Target Multiplier | 2.0 | Profit target distance in ATR |
| Cooldown Period | 5 | Minimum bars between trades |
| Volume Multiplier | 1.2 | Volume spike threshold |
---
## Philosophy
> *"The Turtle system made millions by following breakouts. The Turtle Soup strategy makes money when those breakouts fail. In trading, there's always someone on the other side of the trade—this strategy profits by being the smart money that fades the trapped breakout traders."*
The beauty of the Turtle Soup strategy is its elegant simplicity: it exploits a known, repeatable pattern (failed breakouts) while using modern filters (RSI, ADX) to improve timing and reduce false signals.
---
## Credits
- **Original Turtle System:** Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt (1983)
- **Turtle Soup Strategy:** Linda Bradford Raschke & Larry Connors (1990s)
- **RSI Enhancement:** Various traders who discovered RSI extremes improve reversal detection
- **This Implementation:** Enhanced with Heikin Ashi smoothing, regime detection, ADX filtering, and comprehensive visualization
---
*"We're not following the turtles—we're making soup out of them."* 🥣
Super-AO with Risk Management Alerts Template - 11-29-25Super-AO with Risk Management: ALERTS & AUTOMATION Edition
Signal Lynx | Free Scripts supporting Automation for the Night-Shift Nation 🌙
1. Overview
This is the Indicator / Alerts companion to the Super-AO Strategy.
While the Strategy version is built for backtesting (verifying profitability and checking historical performance), this Indicator version is built for Live Execution.
We understand the frustration of finding a great strategy, only to realize you can't easily hook it up to your trading bot. This script solves that. It contains the exact same "Super-AO" logic and "Risk Management Engine" as the strategy version, but it is optimized to send signals to automation platforms like Signal Lynx, 3Commas, or any Webhook listener.
2. Quick Action Guide (TL;DR)
Purpose: Live Signal Generation & Automation.
Workflow:
Use the Strategy Version to find profitable settings.
Copy those settings into this Indicator Version.
Set a TradingView Alert using the "Any Alert() function call" condition.
Best Timeframe: 4 Hours (H4) and above.
Compatibility: Works with any webhook-based automation service.
3. Why Two Scripts?
Pine Script operates in two distinct modes:
Strategy Mode: Calculates equity, drawdowns, and simulates orders. Great for research, but sometimes complex to automate.
Indicator Mode: Plots visual data on the chart. This is the preferred method for setting up robust alerts because it is lighter weight and plots specific values that automation services can read easily.
The Golden Rule: Always backtest on the Strategy, but trade on the Indicator. This ensures that what you see in your history matches what you execute in real-time.
4. How to Automate This Script
This script uses a "Visual Spike" method to trigger alerts. Instead of drawing equity curves, it plots numerical values at the bottom of your chart when a trade event occurs.
The Signal Map:
Blue Spike (2 / -2): Entry Signal (Long / Short).
Yellow Spike (1 / -1): Risk Management Close (Stop Loss / Trend Reversal).
Green Spikes (1, 2, 3): Take Profit Levels 1, 2, and 3.
Setup Instructions:
Add this indicator to your chart.
Open your TradingView "Alerts" tab.
Create a new Alert.
Condition: Select SAO - RM Alerts Template.
Trigger: Select Any Alert() function call.
Message: Paste your JSON webhook message (provided by your bot service).
5. The Logic Under the Hood
Just like the Strategy version, this indicator utilizes:
SuperTrend + Awesome Oscillator: High-probability swing trading logic.
Non-Repainting Engine: Calculates signals based on confirmed candle closes to ensure the alert you get matches the chart reality.
Advanced Adaptive Trailing Stop (AATS): Internally calculates volatility to determine when to send a "Close" signal.
6. About Signal Lynx
Automation for the Night-Shift Nation 🌙
We are providing this code open source to help traders bridge the gap between manual backtesting and live automation. This code has been in action since 2022.
If you are looking to automate your strategies, please take a look at Signal Lynx in your search.
License: Mozilla Public License 2.0 (Open Source). If you make beneficial modifications, please release them back to the community!
Mebane Faber GTAA 5In 2007, Mebane Faber published research that challenged the conventional wisdom of buy-and-hold investing. His paper, titled "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation" and published in the Journal of Wealth Management, demonstrated that a simple timing mechanism could reduce portfolio volatility and drawdowns while maintaining competitive returns (Faber, 2007). This indicator implements his Global Tactical Asset Allocation strategy, known as GTAA5, following the original methodology.
The core insight of Faber's research stems from a century of market data. By analyzing asset class performance from 1901 onwards, Faber found that a ten-month simple moving average served as an effective trend filter across major asset classes. When an asset trades above its ten-month moving average, it tends to continue its upward trajectory; when it falls below, significant drawdowns often follow (Faber, 2007, pp. 12-16). This observation aligns with momentum research by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), who documented that intermediate-term momentum persists across equity markets.
The GTAA5 strategy allocates capital equally across five diversified asset classes: domestic equities (SPY), international developed markets (EFA), aggregate bonds (AGG), commodities (DBC), and real estate investment trusts (VNQ). Each asset receives a twenty percent allocation when trading above its ten-month moving average. When an asset falls below this threshold, its allocation moves to short-term treasury bills (SHY), creating a dynamic cash position that scales with market risk (Cambria Investment Management, 2013).
The strategy's historical performance during market crises illustrates its function. During the 2008 financial crisis, traditional sixty-forty portfolios experienced drawdowns exceeding forty percent. The GTAA5 strategy limited losses to approximately twelve percent by reducing equity exposure as prices declined below their moving averages (Faber, 2013). This asymmetric return profile represents the strategy's primary characteristic.
This implementation uses monthly closing prices retrieved via request.security() to calculate the ten-month simple moving average. This distinction matters, as approximations using daily data (such as a 200-day moving average) can generate different signals during volatile periods. Monthly data ensures the indicator produces signals consistent with published academic research.
The indicator provides position monitoring, automatic rebalancing detection on either the first or last trading day of each month, and share calculations based on user-defined capital. A dashboard displays current trend status for each asset class, target versus actual weightings, and trade instructions for rebalancing. Performance metrics including annualized volatility and Sharpe ratio provide ongoing risk assessment.
Several limitations warrant acknowledgment. First, the strategy rebalances monthly, meaning it cannot respond to intra-month market crashes. Second, transaction costs and taxes from monthly rebalancing may reduce net returns for taxable accounts. Third, the ten-month lookback period, while historically robust, offers no guarantee of future effectiveness. As Ilmanen (2011) notes in "Expected Returns", all timing strategies face the risk of regime change, where historical relationships break down.
This indicator serves educational purposes and portfolio monitoring. It does not constitute financial advice.
References:
Cambria Investment Management (2013). Global Tactical Asset Allocation: An Introduction to the Approach. Research Report, Los Angeles.
Faber, M.T. (2007). A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation. Journal of Wealth Management, Spring 2007, pp. 9-79.
Faber, M.T. (2013). Global Asset Allocation: A Survey of the World's Top Asset Allocation Strategies. Cambria Investment Management, Los Angeles.
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester.
Jegadeesh, N. and Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), pp. 65-91.
Stochastic Hash Strat [Hash Capital Research]# Stochastic Hash Strategy by Hash Capital Research
## 🎯 What Is This Strategy?
The **Stochastic Slow Strategy** is a momentum-based trading system that identifies oversold and overbought market conditions to capture mean-reversion opportunities. Think of it as a "buy low, sell high" approach with smart mathematical filters that remove emotion from your trading decisions.
Unlike fast-moving indicators that generate excessive noise, this strategy uses **smoothed stochastic oscillators** to identify only the highest-probability setups when momentum truly shifts.
---
## 💡 Why This Strategy Works
Most traders fail because they:
- **Chase prices** after big moves (buying high, selling low)
- **Overtrade** in choppy, directionless markets
- **Exit too early** or hold losses too long
This strategy solves all three problems:
1. **Entry Discipline**: Only trades when the stochastic oscillator crosses in extreme zones (oversold for longs, overbought for shorts)
2. **Cooldown Filter**: Prevents revenge trading by forcing a waiting period after each trade
3. **Fixed Risk/Reward**: Pre-defined stop-loss and take-profit levels ensure consistent risk management
**The Math Behind It**: The stochastic oscillator measures where the current price sits relative to its recent high-low range. When it's below 25, the market is oversold (time to buy). When above 70, it's overbought (time to sell). The crossover with its moving average confirms momentum is shifting.
---
## 📊 Best Markets & Timeframes
### ⭐ OPTIMAL PERFORMANCE:
**Crude Oil (WTI) - 12H Timeframe**
- **Why it works**: Oil markets have predictable volatility patterns and respect technical levels
**AAVE/USD - 4H to 12H Timeframe**
- **Why it works**: DeFi tokens exhibit strong momentum cycles with clear extremes
### ✅ Also Works Well On:
- **BTC/USD** (12H, Daily) - Lower frequency but high win rate
- **ETH/USD** (8H, 12H) - Balanced volatility and liquidity
- **Gold (XAU/USD)** (Daily) - Classic mean-reversion asset
- **EUR/USD** (4H, 8H) - Lower volatility, requires patience
### ❌ Avoid Using On:
- Timeframes below 4H (too much noise)
- Low-liquidity altcoins (wide spreads kill performance)
- Strongly trending markets without pullbacks (Bitcoin in 2021)
- News-driven instruments during major events
---
## 🎛️ Understanding The Settings
### Core Stochastic Parameters
**Stochastic Length (Default: 16)**
- Controls the lookback period for price comparison
- Lower = faster reactions, more signals (10-14 for volatile markets)
- Higher = smoother signals, fewer trades (16-21 for stable markets)
- **Pro tip**: Use 10 for crypto 4H, 16 for commodities 12H
**Overbought Level (Default: 70)**
- Threshold for short entries
- Lower values (65-70) = more trades, earlier entries
- Higher values (75-80) = fewer but higher-conviction trades
- **Sweet spot**: 70 works for most assets
**Oversold Level (Default: 25)**
- Threshold for long entries
- Higher values (25-30) = more trades, earlier entries
- Lower values (15-20) = fewer but stronger bounce setups
- **Sweet spot**: 20-25 depending on market conditions
**Smooth K & Smooth D (Default: 7 & 3)**
- Additional smoothing to filter out whipsaws
- K=7 makes the indicator slower and more reliable
- D=3 is the signal line that confirms the trend
- **Don't change these unless you know what you're doing**
---
### Risk Management
**Stop Loss % (Default: 2.2%)**
- Automatically exits losing trades
- Should be 1.5x to 2x your average market volatility
- Too tight = death by a thousand cuts
- Too wide = uncontrolled losses
- **Calibration**: Check ATR indicator and set SL slightly above it
**Take Profit % (Default: 7%)**
- Automatically exits winning trades
- Should be 2.5x to 3x your stop loss (reward-to-risk ratio)
- This default gives 7% / 2.2% = 3.18:1 R:R
- **The golden rule**: Never have R:R below 2:1
---
### Trade Filters
**Bar Cooldown Filter (Default: ON, 3 bars)**
- **What it does**: Forces you to wait X bars after closing a trade before entering a new one
- **Why it matters**: Prevents emotional revenge trading and overtrading in choppy markets
- **Settings guide**:
- 3 bars = Standard (good for most cases)
- 5-7 bars = Conservative (oil, slow-moving assets)
- 1-2 bars = Aggressive (only for experienced traders)
**Exit on Opposite Extreme (Default: ON)**
- Closes your long when stochastic hits overbought (and vice versa)
- Acts as an early profit-taking mechanism
- **Leave this ON** unless you're testing other exit strategies
**Divergence Filter (Default: OFF)**
- Looks for price/momentum divergences for additional confirmation
- **When to enable**: Trending markets where you want fewer but higher-quality trades
- **Keep OFF for**: Mean-reverting markets (oil, forex, most of the time)
---
## 🚀 Quick Start Guide
### Step 1: Set Up in TradingView
1. Open TradingView and navigate to your chart
2. Click "Pine Editor" at the bottom
3. Copy and paste the strategy code
4. Click "Add to Chart"
5. The strategy will appear in a separate pane below your price chart
### Step 2: Choose Your Market
**If you're trading Crude Oil:**
- Timeframe: 12H
- Keep all default settings
- Watch for signals during London/NY overlap (8am-11am EST)
**If you're trading AAVE or crypto:**
- Timeframe: 4H or 12H
- Consider these adjustments:
- Stochastic Length: 10-14 (faster)
- Oversold: 20 (more aggressive)
- Take Profit: 8-10% (higher targets)
### Step 3: Wait for Your First Signal
**LONG Entry** (Green circle appears):
- Stochastic crosses up below oversold level (25)
- Price likely near recent lows
- System places limit order at take profit and stop loss
**SHORT Entry** (Red circle appears):
- Stochastic crosses down above overbought level (70)
- Price likely near recent highs
- System places limit order at take profit and stop loss
**EXIT** (Orange circle):
- Position closes either at stop, target, or opposite extreme
- Cooldown period begins
### Step 4: Let It Run
The biggest mistake? **Interfering with the system.**
- Don't close trades early because you're scared
- Don't skip signals because you "have a feeling"
- Don't increase position size after a big win
- Don't revenge trade after a loss
**Follow the system or don't use it at all.**
---
### Important Risks:
1. **Drawdown Pain**: You WILL experience losing streaks of 5-7 trades. This is mathematically normal.
2. **Whipsaw Markets**: Choppy, range-bound conditions can trigger multiple small losses.
3. **Gap Risk**: Overnight gaps can cause your actual fill to be worse than the stop loss.
4. **Slippage**: Real execution prices differ from backtested prices (factor in 0.1-0.2% slippage).
---
## 🔧 Optimization Guide
### When to Adjust Settings:
**Market Volatility Increased?**
- Widen stop loss by 0.5-1%
- Increase take profit proportionally
- Consider increasing cooldown to 5-7 bars
**Getting Too Few Signals?**
- Decrease stochastic length to 10-12
- Increase oversold to 30, decrease overbought to 65
- Reduce cooldown to 2 bars
**Getting Too Many Losses?**
- Increase stochastic length to 18-21 (slower, smoother)
- Enable divergence filter
- Increase cooldown to 5+ bars
- Verify you're on the right timeframe
### A/B Testing Method:
1. **Run default settings for 50 trades** on your chosen market
2. Document: Win rate, profit factor, max drawdown, emotional tolerance
3. **Change ONE variable** (e.g., oversold from 25 to 20)
4. Run another 50 trades
5. Compare results
6. Keep the better version
**Never change multiple settings at once** or you won't know what worked.
---
## 📚 Educational Resources
### Key Concepts to Learn:
**Stochastic Oscillator**
- Developed by George Lane in the 1950s
- Measures momentum by comparing closing price to price range
- Formula: %K = (Close - Low) / (High - Low) × 100
- Similar to RSI but more sensitive to price movements
**Mean Reversion vs. Trend Following**
- This is a **mean reversion** strategy (price returns to average)
- Works best in ranging markets with defined support/resistance
- Fails in strong trending markets (2017 Bitcoin, 2020 Tech stocks)
- Complement with trend filters for better results
**Risk:Reward Ratio**
- The cornerstone of profitable trading
- Winning 40% of trades with 3:1 R:R = profitable
- Winning 60% of trades with 1:1 R:R = breakeven (after fees)
- **This strategy aims for 45% win rate with 2.5-3:1 R:R**
### Recommended Reading:
- *"Trading Systems and Methods"* by Perry Kaufman (Chapter on Oscillators)
- *"Mean Reversion Trading Systems"* by Howard Bandy
- *"The New Trading for a Living"* by Dr. Alexander Elder
---
## 🛠️ Troubleshooting
### "I'm not seeing any signals!"
**Check:**
- Is your timeframe 4H or higher?
- Is the stochastic actually reaching extreme levels (check if your asset is stuck in middle range)?
- Is cooldown still active from a previous trade?
- Are you on a low-liquidity pair?
**Solution**: Switch to a more volatile asset or lower the overbought/oversold thresholds.
---
### "The strategy keeps losing money!"
**Check:**
- What's your win rate? (Below 35% is concerning)
- What's your profit factor? (Below 0.8 means serious issues)
- Are you trading during major news events?
- Is the market in a strong trend?
**Solution**:
1. Verify you're using recommended markets/timeframes
2. Increase cooldown period to avoid choppy markets
3. Reduce position size to 5% while you diagnose
4. Consider switching to daily timeframe for less noise
---
### "My stop losses keep getting hit!"
**Check:**
- Is your stop loss tighter than the average ATR?
- Are you trading during high-volatility sessions?
- Is slippage eating into your buffer?
**Solution**:
1. Calculate the 14-period ATR
2. Set stop loss to 1.5x the ATR value
3. Avoid trading right after market open or major news
4. Factor in 0.2% slippage for crypto, 0.1% for oil
---
## 💪 Pro Tips from the Trenches
### Psychological Discipline
**The Three Deadly Sins:**
1. **Skipping signals** - "This one doesn't feel right"
2. **Early exits** - "I'll just take profit here to be safe"
3. **Revenge trading** - "I need to make back that loss NOW"
**The Solution:** Treat your strategy like a business system. Would McDonald's skip making fries because the cashier "doesn't feel like it today"? No. Systems work because of consistency.
---
### Position Management
**Scaling In/Out** (Advanced)
- Enter 50% position at signal
- Add 50% if stochastic reaches 10 (oversold) or 90 (overbought)
- Exit 50% at 1.5x take profit, let the rest run
**This is NOT for beginners.** Master the basic system first.
---
### Market Awareness
**Oil Traders:**
- OPEC meetings = volatility spikes (avoid or widen stops)
- US inventory reports (Wed 10:30am EST) = avoid trading 2 hours before/after
- Summer driving season = different patterns than winter
**Crypto Traders:**
- Monday-Tuesday = typically lower volatility (fewer signals)
- Thursday-Sunday = higher volatility (more signals)
- Avoid trading during exchange maintenance windows
---
## ⚖️ Legal Disclaimer
This trading strategy is provided for **educational purposes only**.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Trading involves substantial risk of loss
- Only trade with capital you can afford to lose
- No one associated with this strategy is a licensed financial advisor
- You are solely responsible for your trading decisions
**By using this strategy, you acknowledge that you understand and accept these risks.**
---
## 🙏 Acknowledgments
Strategy development inspired by:
- George Lane's original Stochastic Oscillator work
- Modern quantitative trading research
- Community feedback from hundreds of backtests
Built with ❤️ for retail traders who want systematic, disciplined approaches to the markets.
---
**Good luck, stay disciplined, and trade the system, not your emotions.**
Golden Cross 50/200 EMATrend-following systems are characterized by having a low win rate, yet in the right circumstances (trending markets and higher timeframes) they can deliver returns that even surpass those of systems with a high win rate.
Below, I show you a simple bullish trend-following system with clear execution rules:
System Rules
-Long entries when the 50-period EMA crosses above the 200-period EMA.
-Stop Loss (SL) placed at the lowest low of the 15 candles prior to the entry candle.
-Take Profit (TP) triggered when the 50-period EMA crosses below the 200-period EMA.
Risk Management
-Initial capital: $10,000
-Position size: 10% of capital per trade
-Commissions: 0.1% per trade
Important Note:
In the code, the stop loss is defined using the swing low (15 candles), but the position size is not adjusted based on the distance to the stop loss. In other words, 10% of the equity is risked on each trade, but the actual loss on the trade is not controlled by a maximum fixed percentage of the account — it depends entirely on the stop loss level. This means the loss on a single trade could be significantly higher or lower than 10% of the account equity, depending on volatility.
Implementing leverage or reducing position size based on volatility is something I haven’t been able to include in the code, but it would dramatically improve the system’s performance. It would fix a consistent percentage loss per trade, preventing losses from fluctuating wildly with changes in volatility.
For example, we can maintain a fixed loss percentage when volatility is low by using the following formula:
Leverage = % of SL you’re willing to risk / % volatility from entry point to stop loss
And when volatility is high and would exceed the fixed percentage we want to expose per trade (if the SL is hit), we could reduce the position size accordingly.
Practical example:
Imagine we only want to risk 15% of the position value if the stop loss is triggered on Tesla (which has high volatility), but the distance to the SL represents a potential 23.57% drop. In this case, we subtract the desired risk (15%) from the actual volatility-based loss (23.57%):
23.57% − 15% = 8.57%
Now suppose we normally use $200 per trade.
To calculate 8.57% of $200:
200 × (8.57 / 100) = $17.14
Then subtract that amount from the original position size:
$200 − $17.14 = $182.86
In summary:
If we reduce the position size to $182.86 (instead of the usual $200), even if Tesla moves 23.57% against us and hits the stop loss, we would still only lose approximately 15% of the original $200 position — exactly the risk level we defined. This way, we strictly respect our risk management rules regardless of volatility swings.
I hope this clearly explains the importance of capping losses at a fixed percentage per trade. This keeps risk under control while maintaining a consistent percentage of capital invested per trade — preventing both statistical distortion of the system and the potential destruction of the account.
About the code:
Strategy declaration:
The strategy is named 'Golden Cross 50/200 EMA'.
overlay=true means it will be drawn directly on the price chart.
initial_capital=10000 sets the initial capital to $10,000.
default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity and default_qty_value=10 means each trade uses 10% of available equity.
margin_long=0 indicates no margin is used for long positions (this is likely for simulation purposes only; in real trading, margin would be required).
commission_type=strategy.commission.percent and commission_value=0.1 sets a 0.1% commission per trade.
Indicators:
Calculates two EMAs: a 50-period EMA (ema50) and a 200-period EMA (ema200).
Crossover detection:
bullCross is triggered when the 50-period EMA crosses above the 200-period EMA (Golden Cross).
bearCross is triggered when the 50-period EMA crosses below the 200-period EMA (Death Cross).
Recent swing:
swingLow calculates the lowest low of the previous 15 periods.
Stop Loss:
entryStopLoss is a variable initialized as na (not available) and is updated to the current swingLow value whenever a bullCross occurs.
Entry and exit conditions:
Entry: When a bullCross occurs, the initial stop loss is set to the current swingLow and a long position is opened.
Exit on opposite signal: When a bearCross occurs, the long position is closed.
Exit on stop loss: If the price falls below entryStopLoss while a position is open, the position is closed.
Visualization:
Both EMAs are plotted (50-period in blue, 200-period in red).
Green triangles are plotted below the bar on a bullCross, and red triangles above the bar on a bearCross.
A horizontal orange line is drawn that shows the stop loss level whenever a position is open.
Alerts:
Alerts are created for:Long entry
Exit on bearish crossover (Death Cross)
Exit triggered by stop loss
Favorable Conditions:
Tesla (45-minute timeframe)
June 29, 2010 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $12,458.73 or +124.59%
Maximum drawdown: $1,210.40 or 8.29%
Total trades: 107
Winning trades: 27.10% (29/107)
Profit factor: 3.141
Tesla (1-hour timeframe)
June 29, 2010 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $7,681.83 or +76.82%
Maximum drawdown: $993.36 or 7.30%
Total trades: 75
Winning trades: 29.33% (22/75)
Profit factor: 3.157
Netflix (45-minute timeframe)
May 23, 2002 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $11,380.73 or +113.81%
Maximum drawdown: $699.45 or 5.98%
Total trades: 134
Winning trades: 36.57% (49/134)
Profit factor: 2.885
Netflix (1-hour timeframe)
May 23, 2002 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $11,689.05 or +116.89%
Maximum drawdown: $844.55 or 7.24%
Total trades: 107
Winning trades: 37.38% (40/107)
Profit factor: 2.915
Netflix (2-hour timeframe)
May 23, 2002 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $12,807.71 or +128.10%
Maximum drawdown: $866.52 or 6.03%
Total trades: 56
Winning trades: 41.07% (23/56)
Profit factor: 3.891
Meta (45-minute timeframe)
May 18, 2012 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $2,370.02 or +23.70%
Maximum drawdown: $365.27 or 3.50%
Total trades: 83
Winning trades: 31.33% (26/83)
Profit factor: 2.419
Apple (45-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $8,232.55 or +80.59%
Maximum drawdown: $581.11 or 3.16%
Total trades: 140
Winning trades: 34.29% (48/140)
Profit factor: 3.009
Apple (1-hour timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $9,685.89 or +94.93%
Maximum drawdown: $374.69 or 2.26%
Total trades: 118
Winning trades: 35.59% (42/118)
Profit factor: 3.463
Apple (2-hour timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $8,001.28 or +77.99%
Maximum drawdown: $755.84 or 7.56%
Total trades: 67
Winning trades: 41.79% (28/67)
Profit factor: 3.825
NVDA (15-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $11,828.56 or +118.29%
Maximum drawdown: $1,275.43 or 8.06%
Total trades: 466
Winning trades: 28.11% (131/466)
Profit factor: 2.033
NVDA (30-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $12,203.21 or +122.03%
Maximum drawdown: $1,661.86 or 10.35%
Total trades: 245
Winning trades: 28.98% (71/245)
Profit factor: 2.291
NVDA (45-minute timeframe)
January 3, 2000 – November 17, 2025
Total net profit: $16,793.48 or +167.93%
Maximum drawdown: $1,458.81 or 8.40%
Total trades: 172
Winning trades: 33.14% (57/172)
Profit factor: 2.927
RastaRasta — Educational Strategy (Pine v5)
Momentum · Smoothing · Trend Study
Overview
The Rasta Strategy is a visual and educational framework designed to help traders study momentum transitions using the interaction between a fast-reacting EMA line and a slower smoothed reference line.
It is not a signal generator or profit system; it’s a learning tool for understanding how smoothing, crossovers, and filters interact under different market conditions.
The script displays:
A primary EMA line (the fast reactive wave).
A Smoothed line (using your chosen smoothing method).
Optional fog zones between them for quick visual context.
Optional DNA rungs connecting both lines to illustrate volatility compression and expansion.
Optional EMA 8 / EMA 21 trend filter to observe higher-time-frame alignment.
Core Idea
The Rasta model focuses on wave interaction. When the fast EMA crosses above the smoothed line, it reflects a shift in short-term momentum relative to background trend pressure. Cross-unders suggest weakening or reversal.
Rather than treating this as a trading “signal,” use it to observe structure, study trend alignment, and test how smoothing type affects reaction speed.
Smoothing Types Explained
The script lets you experiment with multiple smoothing techniques:
Type Description Use Case
SMA (Simple Moving Average) Arithmetic mean of the last n values. Smooth and steady, but slower. Trend-following studies; filters noise on higher time frames.
EMA (Exponential Moving Average) Weights recent data more. Responds faster to new price action. Momentum or reactive strategies; quick shifts and reversals.
RMA (Relative Moving Average) Used internally by RSI; smooths exponentially but slower than EMA. Momentum confirmation; balanced response.
WMA (Weighted Moving Average) Linear weights emphasizing the most recent data strongly. Intraday scalping; crisp but potentially noisy.
None Disables smoothing; uses the EMA line alone. Raw comparison baseline.
Each smoothing method changes how early or late the strategy reacts:
Faster smoothing (EMA/WMA) = more responsive, good for scalping.
Slower smoothing (SMA/RMA) = more stable, good for trend following.
Modes of Study
🔹 Scalper Mode
Use short EMA lengths (e.g., 3–5) and fast smoothing (EMA or WMA).
Focus on 1 min – 15 min charts.
Watch how quick crossovers appear near local tops/bottoms.
Fog and rung compression reveal volatility contraction before bursts.
Goal: study short-term rhythm and liquidity pulses.
🔹 Momentum Mode
Use moderate EMA (5–9) and RMA smoothing.
Ideal for 1 H–4 H charts.
Observe how the fog color aligns with trend shifts.
EMA 8 / 21 filter can act as macro bias; “Enter” labels will appear only in its direction when enabled.
Goal: study sustained motion between pullbacks and acceleration waves.
🔹 Trend-Follower Mode
Use longer EMA (13–21) with SMA smoothing.
Great for daily/weekly charts.
Focus on periods where fog stays unbroken for long stretches — these illustrate clear trend dominance.
Watch rung spacing: tight clusters often precede consolidations; wide rungs signal expanding volatility.
Goal: visualize slow-motion trend transitions and filter whipsaw conditions.
Components
EMA Line (Red): Fast-reacting short-term direction.
Smoothed Line (Yellow): Reference trend baseline.
Fog Zone: Green when EMA > Smoothed (up-momentum), red when below.
DNA Rungs: Thin connectors showing volatility structure.
EMA 8 / 21 Filter (optional):
When enabled, the strategy will only allow Enter events if EMA 8 > EMA 21.
Use this to study higher-trend gating effects.
Educational Applications
Momentum Visualization: Observe how the fast EMA “breathes” around the smoothed baseline.
Trend Transitions: Compare different smoothing types to see how early or late reversals are detected.
Noise Filtering: Experiment with fog opacity and smoothing lengths to understand trade-off between responsiveness and stability.
Risk Concept Simulation: Includes a simple fixed stop-loss parameter (default 13%) for educational demonstrations of position management in the Strategy Tester.
How to Use
Add to Chart → “Strategy.”
Works on any timeframe and instrument.
Adjust Parameters:
Length: base EMA speed.
Smoothing Type: choose SMA, EMA, RMA, or WMA.
Smoothing Length: controls delay and smoothness.
EMA 8 / 21 Filter: toggles trend gating.
Fog & Rungs: visual study options only.
Study Behavior:
Use Strategy Tester → List of Trades for entry/exit context.
Observe how different smoothing types affect early vs. late “Enter” points.
Compare trend periods vs. ranging periods to evaluate efficiency.
Combine with External Tools:
Overlay RSI, MACD, or Volume for deeper correlation analysis.
Use replay mode to visualize crossovers in live sequence.
Interpreting the Labels
Enter: Marks where fast EMA crosses above the smoothed line (or when filter flips positive).
Exit: Marks where fast EMA crosses back below.
These are purely analytical markers — they do not represent trade advice.
Educational Value
The Rasta framework helps learners explore:
Reaction time differences between moving-average algorithms.
Impact of smoothing on signal clarity.
Interaction of local and global trends.
Visualization of volatility contraction (tight DNA rungs) and expansion (wide fog zones).
It’s a sandbox for studying price structure, not a promise of profit.
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational and research purposes only.
It does not constitute financial advice, trading signals, or performance guarantees. Past market behavior does not predict future outcomes.
Users are encouraged to experiment responsibly, record observations, and develop their own understanding of price behavior.
Author: Michael Culpepper (mikeyc747)
License: Educational / Open for study and modification with credit.
Philosophy:
“Learning the rhythm of the market is more valuable than chasing its profits.” — Rasta
Hedge Simulation Martingale v1
1. Overview & Strategy Logic
This script implements an automated, multi-position trading strategy that uses a Martingale-inspired approach to manage a series of entries. The core logic is as follows:
Initial Entry: The script enters a trade based on the direction of the previous bar's close. A green bar triggers a Long position; a red bar triggers a Short position.
Profit-Taking: A single, fixed-percentage profit target (Profit Percentage) is set for the entire trade. If reached, all positions are closed for a net profit.
Loss Management (Martingale Logic): If the price moves against the initial position and hits the fixed-percentage stop-loss (Loss Percentage), the script does not exit. Instead, it averages down by adding a new, larger position in the same direction. The size of the new position is determined by multiplying the previous position size by the First Multiplier.
Net Position Management: The script continuously calculates the net average entry price, a new combined profit target, and a new combined stop-loss based on all open positions. The goal is for a single favorable price move to recover all previous losses and hit the profit target.
2. Key Features
Visual Indicators:
Plots the Net Average Entry Price on the chart.
Plots dynamic Profit Target (TP) and Stop-Loss (SL) levels that update as new positions are added.
Displays entry signals (triangles) for the initial Long or Short trade.
Comprehensive Dashboard: A detailed table in the top-right corner shows real-time metrics, including:
Total historical Long/Short volume and PnL.
Current trade's investment, unrealized PnL, and position sizes.
Current position count, direction, and size.
Configurable Parameters:
Profit Percentage: The target profit percentage for the net position.
Loss Percentage: The stop-loss percentage that triggers a new entry.
Initial Position Size: The size of the first position in the series.
First Multiplier: The multiplier applied to the previous position size when averaging down.
Maximum Multiplier: A safety cap (commented out in the code but present) to prevent infinite scaling.
3. Intended Use & Purpose
This script is designed as a position management and tracking tool for traders who are experimenting with or actively using Martingale-style strategies. It is best used to:
Automate the complex calculations of average entry, combined TP/SL, and PnL for multiple entries.
Visually track the status of an ongoing series of positions.
Backtest the viability and risks of such a strategy on historical data.
4. ⚠️ Critical Risk Warning & Disclaimer
THIS STRATEGY CARRIES EXTREME FINANCIAL RISK. USE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Unlimited Loss Potential: The Martingale strategy is infamous for its potential to generate unlimited losses. By continuously doubling down (or multiplying) on losing positions, a small adverse price move can lead to catastrophic losses that can exceed your account balance.
Margin Calls: The rapidly increasing position size can quickly deplete your margin, leading to a margin call and forced liquidation of all positions at a significant loss.
No Guarantee of Recovery: The assumption that the price will eventually reverse is flawed. A strong, sustained trend can wipe out the entire trading capital.
For Educational/Advanced Use Only: This script is intended for sophisticated traders who fully understand the immense risks involved. It is not a "sure profit" system.
The publisher of this script is not responsible for any financial losses incurred through its use. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and risk management.
5. How to Use
Apply the Script: Add the script to your chart.
Configure Parameters: Adjust the input parameters according to your risk tolerance and strategy rules. Be extremely cautious with the multiplier and position size.
Monitor the Dashboard: The table will provide all necessary information about the current and historical state of the strategy.
Observe the Levels: Watch the plotted Entry, TP, and SL levels to understand the current market position.
Backtest First: Always test the strategy extensively on historical data before considering it with real capital.
6. Notes
The Maximum Multiplier safety feature is present in the code but is currently commented out. Users are strongly advised to uncomment and set this parameter to act as a final, hard liquidation point.
The script logs key events (trade start, target hit) and export data for further analysis.
This is a complex script and should be thoroughly understood before use.
